With Super Tuesday concluded, former President Trump achieved a complete victory in the Republican primaries, effectively securing his position as the Republican presidential nominee. Moving forward, the battle will intensify toward the November general election against incumbent Democratic President Biden. While it appears to be an overwhelming victory on the surface, uncertainty remains high, and we cannot yet say it is "almost certain Trump."

■The impact would indeed be significant if "If Trump" becomes "Really Trump"
　Should "If Trump" become reality, the impact would indeed be very substantial. What kind of influence would there be if Trump were to return to the White House? According to our analysis, Trump is a "very straightforward" politician. While he may appear to speak incoherently, his fundamental thinking and policy pillars have remained virtually unchanged even when observed over years.

In this column, we will eliminate the influence of the "trash talk" he likely learned from professional wrestling promotion marketing and various preconceptions circulating in the media, first objectively organize his assertions, and predict the world after Trump's re-election.

■Trump's Platform and Speech Collection "Agenda47"
　At present, the Trump camp has not announced anything like a formalized and well-structured "official platform." However, Trump's website has a section called "Agenda47," where substantial pledges including campaign speech content are published. The chart at the beginning represents our analysis and summary of this agenda from our company's perspective. When organized this way, the overall picture of a "very simple policy system" becomes visible.

A machine-translated file of Agenda47 is available for download here

■Increase tax revenue, reduce spending, and redistribute
　What emerges from reading Trump's pledges is a thorough management perspective befitting a businessman. All pledges can be classified into three categories: tax revenue increase, spending reduction, and redistribution (categorization is our company's judgment). The perspective that national administration is an investment business using tax money is very clear.

Typically, politicians' pledges tend to be abstract and ideology-driven. However, Trump is not that type. It seems that a national fiscal profit and loss statement is always present in his mind. When interpreted this way, Trump's pledges can also be perceived as "reasonably realistic." And his execution capability has already been proven during his previous term. Should Trump win, policies will almost certainly be executed in accordance with this "Agenda47." So what does he want to do? Let's examine the content.

■Tax revenue increase will be achieved not through tax hikes, but through tariff strengthening. 60% tariffs on China are "almost certain"
　The starting point for all of Trump's national administration business is "tax revenue expansion." He seeks to achieve this not through tax increases on domestic voters, but through tariff strengthening on foreign countries, led by China. The underlying recognition is that China is a currency manipulator. Given that the yuan is guided and manipulated to be impossibly low for a floating exchange rate system, and China is unlikely to correct this itself, the difference should be compensated through tariffs. This is the most important strategy for achieving top-line growth in the MAGA business.

　The specific 60% tariff on China also does not seem to be mere number games. It is likely the result of some degree of simulation of current dollar-yuan exchange rate levels and actual tax revenue from implementing high tariffs.

　For example, let's look at Japan's past. In the 1980s, when the Japanese yen transitioned from a fixed exchange rate system to a floating exchange rate system in the Plaza Accord, the Japanese yen appreciated by nearly 80% over five years. No one would now deny that the Plaza Accord had aspects of "economic sanctions against Japan" under the pretext of correcting trade imbalances.

　If the Trump administration aims for the same kind of "economic sanctions effect" as that time, the 60% tariff on China cannot be dismissed as mere number games or bluffing. Our company predicts that if President Trump is re-elected, the "60% tariff on China" will be implemented with quite high probability.

　However, there is a possibility that Trump, who is a tough negotiator and self-proclaimed deal junkie, may propose some kind of "deal" to China before this 60% tariff. Whether this concerns the Taiwan situation, China's intelligence activities within the United States, or other materials is unclear. This can be said to be one of the focal points of future Trump watching.

■There is sufficient possibility that high tariffs will also be imposed on Japanese exports to the United States.
　It is not only China that will be affected by Trump's tariff policies. All countries could potentially be affected. Agenda47 has consistently stated for over a year that "tariffs of several percent to around 10% will be imposed on imports from all countries, including those other than China." This has been mentioned in recent speeches and remains a consistent assertion to this day. Depending on the results, Japanese companies' supply chains could also be significantly impacted.

On the other hand, regarding this matter, there have been statements suggesting that if partner countries eliminate tariffs on imports from the United States, high tariffs on exports to the United States would be considered accordingly, indicating room for future negotiations. Japan may well be drawn into tough bilateral negotiations from 2025 onward, particularly regarding agricultural products on which tariffs are currently imposed on imports from the United States.

■A complete reversal of environmental energy policy is also almost certain
　Another highlight of Agenda47 is, needless to say, the "complete reversal of energy policy." This is positioned primarily as a "cost reduction strategy" in the MAGA business plan. He recognizes that the Democratic Party's Green New Deal policies have led to the injection of all kinds of "wasteful" tax money, including subsidies, which has ultimately become the source of rising energy costs and the current severe inflation. All these expenditures are subject to reduction, first suppressing spending. This is another pillar of his strategy.

　However, the aim of energy policy transformation does not stop there, of course. He states that the resources obtained through increased revenue from tariffs and environmental cost reductions will be significantly directed toward increased production of shale oil and LNG. He pledges to reconstruct the United States from a completely energy self-sufficient country to an energy-exporting country, and to "reduce American energy prices to the world's lowest levels." He repeatedly states that this will end unprecedented inflation and revive domestic industry.

　In other words, in Agenda47, the transformation of energy policy is not merely cost reduction, but the "most important strategy" aimed at secondary and tertiary synergy effects of reinvestment in fossil fuels, subsequent inflation suppression, and domestic industrial revival. If he is re-elected, this strategy will almost certainly be executed "immediately" and "with great execution power."

　■Cut off Russia's war funding through global energy price decline
　Furthermore, our company surmises that his energy policy may actually have another major purpose: to damage the Russian economy.

Trump positions aid spending for the Ukraine war as "wasteful spending," and if re-elected, clearly shows his stance of cutting off involvement in this war. However, the specific measures for ending it "within 24 hours" as he claims are not currently clear.

　Certainly, from an "America First" perspective, involvement in Ukraine would be a waste of tax money. However, wouldn't withdrawing the defense of Ukraine, which the country once committed to against a dictator's act of rewriting borders through force, and retreating ignominiously greatly undermine the "Great America" ideology that Trump values? This is where his true intentions remain unclear.

　Our company's speculation is that if he is re-elected, the United States will likely immediately withdraw from involvement in the Ukraine war. Then, while Ukraine somehow holds on with support mainly from the EU, we predict that Trump will push full force on his strategy of increasing petrochemical fuel production and lowering energy prices. Currently, what supports Russia's war capability is ultimately energy exports as a resource country (to China and India). The current surge in resource prices greatly benefits Russia and serves as funding to purchase weapons from Iran, North Korea, or other countries, or to barely maintain the domestic economy. However, if the realization of "If Trump" leads to a significant drop in crude oil prices, it could have a major impact on the Russian economy as well.

　Among other factors, there are many more impact factors that "If Trump" will have on the future, including Trump's future actions regarding the Israeli situation. Our company will continue to analyze the trends of the U.S. presidential election, which will be the world's biggest event of 2024, from the perspective of "what Donald Trump is thinking."