In April 2025, the Tokyo Stock Exchange announced a significant revision to the listing maintenance standards for the TSE Growth Market. The core of the new standards requires a Market Capitalization of ¥10 billion or more after a certain period (five years) from listing, and from 2030 onward, companies that fail to meet this threshold will face the risk of delisting (please refer to the Exchange's official publications for details on the transitional arrangements and other regulatory specifics).
So how high a hurdle is "¥10 billion in Market Capitalization" for companies listed on the TSE Growth Market? We tracked the Market Capitalization trajectory of 617 companies in the Lapis Lazuli database from the time of their listing to the present, and sought to quantify the reality of "reaching ¥10 billion."
Current State — 68% Remain Below the Threshold
| Current Market Capitalization | No. of Companies | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Below ¥10 billion | 420 companies | 68.1% |
| Of which, below ¥5 billion | 261 companies | 42.3% |
| ¥10–20 billion | 100 companies | 16.2% |
| ¥20 billion or more | 97 companies | 15.7% |
Of the 617 companies in the database, 420 — fully 68.1% — currently have a Market Capitalization below ¥10 billion. Moreover, more than 60% of those below ¥10 billion (261 companies) have not even reached ¥5 billion. If the new standards were applied in full "today," two-thirds of the market would be candidates for delisting — that is the magnitude of impact this threshold carries. It is also worth noting that 35 companies are clustered in the border zone of ¥9–11 billion, and the battle around this line is set to become the single most critical focus of investor relations and capital policy for these companies heading into 2030.
Speed of Achievement — Companies That Can Get There Do So Within the First Three Years
We next tracked whether the 419 companies that had a Market Capitalization below ¥10 billion at the time of listing were subsequently able to reach that threshold. The results were somewhat unexpected.
| Subsequent Outcomes: 419 Companies Below ¥10 Billion at Listing | No. of Companies / Percentage |
|---|---|
| Reached ¥10 billion at least once | 209 companies (49.9%) |
| Median number of years to reach threshold | Approx. 1 year |
| Reached within 3 years (as % of those who reached threshold) | 148 companies (70.8%) |
| Reached after 5–10 years | 22 companies (10.5%) |
| Reached after more than 10 years | 16 companies (7.7%) |
| Currently fallen back below ¥10 billion after having reached threshold | 124 companies (59.3% of the 209 that reached threshold) |
※ Achievement is determined based on annual snapshots of Market Capitalization at each fiscal year-end (and current values). Temporary intra-period achievement is not captured. Year figures carry an accuracy of approximately ±1 year.
To begin with, half of the companies (49.9%) reached ¥10 billion at least once. And fully 70% of those that did so achieved it within three years of listing, with a median of just one year. While 35 companies have been listed for more than 15 years and still remain below ¥10 billion, only 7.7% reached the threshold gradually over more than ten years. The dynamic is not one of "eventually getting there given enough time," but rather one where companies that are capable of reaching the threshold do so in a single surge, carried by the growth momentum immediately following listing — the speed at which this plays out proved more intense than anticipated. A prime example is TWOSTONE&Sons, which launched its Initial Public Offering (IPO) at ¥2.5 billion, surpassed ¥10 billion within its first year, and currently stands at ¥16.9 billion.
The True Challenge Is Not "Reaching" the Threshold, But "Sustaining" It
However, the most significant figure in this analysis lies elsewhere. Of the 209 companies that once reached ¥10 billion, 124 (59.3%) have since fallen back below that level. They were able to touch the line, but could not hold it. There is an entirely different order of difficulty between briefly crossing the threshold on the back of a favorable market environment and establishing a sustained valuation through the accumulation of earnings performance.
This is no exception even among the 184 companies that started above ¥10 billion at the time of listing — only 58.2% have maintained that level to the present day. What the listing maintenance standards are truly asking is not "can you touch ¥10 billion?" but "can you remain at ¥10 billion?", and the latter is a far higher bar than the former. This distinction is, I believe, fundamental when considering how to respond to the new standards.
Will These Standards Contribute to the Development of the TSE Growth Market?
The new standards carry a clear intent: to transform a market structure in which small-scale listings proliferate and post-listing growth stagnates, and to cultivate companies of sufficient scale and liquidity to attract institutional investors. Indeed, if the "¥10 billion in five years" target functions as a discipline for capital policy and growth investment, a virtuous cycle of larger-scale IPOs and accelerated post-listing growth is conceivable. The data showing that 70% of companies that reached the threshold did so within three years also suggests that the five-year deadline is not unrealistic for high-quality companies.
At the same time, concerns remain. Market Capitalization is substantially influenced not only by earnings performance but also by broader market conditions, and as evidenced by the fact that 60% of companies that reached the threshold have since fallen back, the battle around the ¥10 billion line is heavily intertwined with beta (overall market fluctuations). Furthermore, it remains to be seen how the disappearance from the public markets of companies that generate steady profits and pay dividends even at a Market Capitalization of ¥5 billion will affect market diversity and entrepreneurial incentives for pursuing an IPO. Whether all 35 companies that have been listed for more than 15 years and remain below ¥10 billion should be considered candidates for "natural turnover" is not a conclusion one can draw easily. Whether the new standards will invigorate the market or diminish it — the answer should be observable in the data over the coming years leading up to 2030.
Closing Remarks
"¥10 billion in five years" is achievable at least once for more than half of all companies, yet sustaining it is a narrow gate — that is the current picture painted by the data on 617 companies. This site will continue to track movements around this threshold as a fixed reference point heading into 2030. Which side of the line will the 35 companies currently in the ¥9–11 billion contested zone be on five years from now? And which side of the line is the company you are watching currently on?
Source: Data from the IPO and TSE Growth Market analysis service "Lapis Lazuli" (as of July 2026). The universe consists of 617 listed issues on the TSE Growth Market (including the former Mothers market), with Market Capitalization at listing calculated for 603 companies and annual history available for 606 companies. Market Capitalization history is based on annual snapshots at each fiscal year-end and does not capture intra-period fluctuations. For details on the listing maintenance standards, including the effective dates and transitional arrangements, please refer to the official publications of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Figures are based on each company's disclosed materials but are not guaranteed for accuracy.
※ This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities.
