War has broken out again in the Middle East. Through our company's involvement in supporting Japanese startups, we have had opportunities to interact with Israeli startups and various local communities. In this context, we have been compelled to examine and deepen our understanding of the political and religious issues faced by Israel and Palestine, and have continued to develop our analysis. Needless to say, an immediate ceasefire and the reconstruction of a framework for coexistence between both nations is what is desired.

　However, the essence of this problem is the 2000-year conflict among the three monotheistic religions known as the Abrahamic religions (Judaism, Christianity, and Islam). The Abrahamic religions are crucial elements that constitute the world's framework. Half of the world's population belongs to one of these religions. This is arguably the most difficult area for the Japanese people, who come from a non-monotheistic nation, to understand.

Our company is not a group of Middle Eastern political experts. However, sharing information organized and understood by extremely average Japanese people who were completely indifferent to such Middle Eastern issues until a few years ago, but who came to understand them through exchanges with Israel, may provide a modest opportunity to promote understanding from a different perspective than complex explanations by experts. The current Middle Eastern conflict has brought global instability to its extreme limits. What is happening at the epicenter, and what impact might this have on global geopolitics? We hope this column series can serve as some kind of catalyst for understanding these issues from multiple perspectives.

■The First Step in Understanding the Middle East: "There is No Security Treaty Between the US and Israel"
～Comparison with the US-Japan Security Alliance～

As an introduction to this column, let us first consider the US-Japan Security Treaty. Between the United States and Japan, the Japan-US Security Treaty has existed for a long period since the San Francisco Peace Treaty. If Japan were ever attacked by another country, based on this treaty, the United States would be obligated to defend Japan using American taxpayers' money. This Japan-US Security Treaty is an official treaty approved by both countries' congresses, and both Japan and the US are obligated by their respective national laws to comply with this treaty.

So what about the relationship between the US and Israel? The US provides enormous military support to Israel and continues to support it—is this because there is a strong security treaty like the Japan-US alliance between the US and Israel? Many Japanese people might think so. However, this is incorrect. There is no security treaty approved by both congresses between the US and Israel. (However, Israel is officially designated as a Major Non-NATO Ally)

Reference: US Government Website
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-israel/
https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/
 

　Instead, a "Strategic Cooperation Agreement" has been concluded between the two countries in the form of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which is an administrative document. It was first concluded on November 30, 1981. This was concluded between then-Defense Minister Ariel Sharon and US Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger. Its main purpose was to deter the Soviet threat in the Middle East at the time and "Soviet-controlled forces."

　This administrative document, unlike the Japan-US Security Treaty, does not obligate the US to defend Israel. It can be said to be extremely weak as a legal basis for providing enormous military support using American taxpayers' money. Of course, if the US and Israel were to conclude a security treaty, Middle Eastern conflicts would immediately expand into world wars. For the same reason that Ukraine cannot join NATO and cannot conclude a security treaty with the US, the US cannot conclude a security treaty with Israel that would create mutual defense obligations.

However, from the conclusion of this initial MOU to the present, the US Congress has approved enormous military support based on this MOU and other agreements in annual defense-related expenditures. Far from protesting this, American citizens have approved military aid reportedly exceeding $3 billion annually for more than several decades. This has continued unchanged through both Republican and Democratic administrations. (Note that US expenditure for Japan's defense based on the security treaty is approximately $5 billion annually, while Japan's host nation support is approximately $2 billion annually). This is strikingly contrasted with the fact that voices calling for withdrawal from Ukraine support have already emerged in the US less than two years after the start of the Ukraine war. Why is this?

■What Binds Them is Not "Rule of Law" but "Rule of God"

　This is because Jews and the majority of American Christians (Christian evangelicals) are very deeply connected religiously. Approximately 2000 years ago, Christianity was merely a branch of Judaism (the Jewish Jesus sect). However, Christianity, led by Paul, a marketing genius, succeeded in expanding its influence across the European continent and became the state religion of Rome. Then it began to severely persecute Jews who were scattered across various parts of Europe, spreading many "Jewish conspiracy theories." This was a revenge drama of role reversal. In subsequent Europe where Christianity took root, "absolute monarchs" and "churches" continued to govern people alternately, skillfully utilizing divine authority.

　However, when movable type printing became widespread in the 1500s and the Bible began to spread directly to the masses, a movement of people (Protestants) who thought "we have been deceived by 'kings' and 'churches'" and resisted arose. New technology (movable type printing) gave birth to a new religion. Among these Protestants, those with particularly strong "biblical fundamentalist" tendencies (everything written in the Bible = the gospel is everything, and its interpretation is left to individuals) can be said to be the source of evangelicals in the United States.

They came to think that since the Bible states that Israel is the land God gave to the Jews, Israel belongs to the Jewish people. Some Christian evangelicals go further in their interpretation, believing that the place where Jesus of Nazareth will return to this world as the Messiah (Christ) is Israel, and that at that time Jews will play an important role. Therefore, for Christ to return, Israel must be restored as a Jewish nation-state. And when they witness Jesus's second coming with their own eyes, the Jews who have not recognized Jesus of Nazareth as Christ (the Messiah) will also recognize Jesus as Christ (the Messiah) and voluntarily convert to Christianity.

　This is the most fundamental motivation for America's pro-Israel stance. They consider God's covenant (law) far more important than contracts (laws) decided by "mere humans," such as "security treaties." No one in history has ever been able to directly challenge this way of thinking, win an election, and become President of the United States. And no one should appear even 100 years from now. Just as Israel is a Jewish state and Arab countries are Islamic states, the United States is a Christian state.

　Certainly, there are Jewish political organizations in the US called the so-called Jewish lobby, which have strong financial influence on presidential elections. However, people who believe in Judaism are generally very independent, and it would be wrong to think that they engage in collective voting behavior with "unwavering unity" like Japanese religious organizations. In terms of influence on elections, evangelicals should be considered the important factor.

■Why do Americans call the United States the "Promised Land"?

Americans who value religious faith call the United States the "Promised Land." President Obama's autobiography is also titled "Promised Land." This is because, just as Israel is the "Promised Land" for Jews, they believe that God gave Protestants the United States as their "Promised Land." That intense faith can be said to be the "core" of American people who, fleeing persecution from Catholics and the Anglican Church, made life-threatening voyages to settle in the American continent. During America's founding period, there was a maxim said to have been written by either Thomas Jefferson or Benjamin Franklin (the exact originator is unknown). It goes as follows:
 

Rebellion to Tyrants is Obedience to God.
Rebellion against tyrants is obedience to God.
 

The origin of the American spirit that rebelled against European colonial oppression and achieved independence is obedience to God.
 

■The US Will Never "Back Down" on the Israel Issue. That is the Real Frightening Aspect of This Problem.

　What we have written so far is, needless to say, our company's religious and historical understanding and interpretation. With that premise, if this perspective is correct, what implications might there be for future Middle Eastern situations?

　Simply put, it means that the US will "absolutely never" back down on the Israel issue. If US support for Israel were to diminish, Israel, surrounded almost entirely by hostile forces, would immediately face an existential crisis. For example, Iran has declared as national policy to "wipe Israel off the map." As wisdom to break through such a structure, the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and the conclusion of a security treaty between the US and Saudi Arabia (the so-called Abraham Accords framework) were being considered. However, Hamas's terrorist acts have completely derailed these efforts.

■The US Will Not Adopt a Three-Front Strategy. Japan Will Be Affected by This.

　As everyone now anticipates, our company also fears that geopolitical risks worldwide will increase to unprecedented levels in 2024-2025. There will be Taiwan's presidential election in early 2024, and depending on the results, this could greatly embolden China. And at the end of 2024, there will be US midterm elections. If Republican Trump wins, he probably will not continue to allocate significant US resources to Taiwan and Ukraine. Our company believes that even if Biden is re-elected, there is a high possibility of convergence in the same direction, albeit to different degrees. This is because that is what the American people want.

　The Ukraine war should be settled somehow between Ukraine and Russia, and if Japan has trouble with the Taiwan issue, Japan should somehow handle it on its own. However, the US will absolutely never compromise on Israel alone. That is certain. This is because it relates to America's very foundation and national principles. Therefore, if forces opposing the US and Israel choose to thoroughly oppose and expand the conflict globally on this issue, the US would not hesitate to engage in world war. The world must never misjudge this core source of America's fundamental power. On the other hand, the US might concede on Ukraine and Taiwan in exchange for not yielding on Israel. There is a sufficient possibility that the US would accept such a "deal." And which country would be seriously affected by this? It is Japan.

■Thinking That Having the Japan-US Security Treaty Means Safety is "Rose-Colored Glasses" Syndrome
 

　And what will happen to Japan? We still see arguments that organize and understand the world within a framework of "rule of law" logic, claiming that Japan is safe because of the Japan-US Security Treaty. However, from the perspective of American citizens who have the right to decide the US president, a security treaty between the US and Japan, which is not a Christian nation, is merely a contract for adjusting interests with "mere humans." Unfortunately, apart from the short term, American citizens will probably no longer approve of continuously pouring large amounts of American tax money and soldiers' lives into that region (Asia) for the long term.

Nevertheless, if there are still many Japanese who chant "rule of law" like a prayer and casually assume everything is fine because of the Japan-US Security Treaty, this must be called "rose-colored glasses" syndrome. For Japan, which is not a Christian nation, to share the democratic governance system that Western Christian society reinvented during the Renaissance and to maintain and develop it as a common value requires very strong determination and effort. It must be said that it is very uncertain whether Japan's current politics can accomplish this.

Opening photo: Remains of Roman aqueduct on the coast of Caesarea, Israel. Jews of ancient Israel destroyed by Rome were scattered around the world,
and early Christians set out on continental missionary work. (Photo taken by author in 2018)